From Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandeb:
Iran’s blueprint for new regional order
after US breaks MoU
July 14th, 7:23pm
(Press TV Strategic Analysis Desk)
The Persian Gulf today stands at a precipice unseen since the
Tanker War of the 1980s. This crisis is not of Iran's making
but the direct and well-documented consequence of
sustained US military escalation and unprovoked
acts of aggression - which have emerged as
the principal drivers of regional instability.
It is characterised by the flagrant and continuing violation of
the war-ending memorandum of understanding (MoU),
breached through repeated US military strikes on
Iranian territory, covert naval incursions, and
acts of maritime banditry and piracy.
Washington has systematically dismantled every diplomatic
off-ramp, leaving Tehran with no recourse but decisive and
powerful retaliation.
Every US provocation and act of aggression has been met by
Iran with swift, decisive and fully lawful retaliation. These
responses are not acts of escalation but the inherent,
non-negotiable right of a sovereign nation, to defend
itself under international law, specifically Article 51
of the United Nations Charter. To brand Iran as the
aggressor is to invert reality entirely. The US war
machine chose this path and Iran is not the one
to surrender.
Having exhausted the diplomatic track – repeatedly sabotaged
by a US regime notoriously known for its lack of good faith –
Iran has transitioned from a defensive posture to a
strategically offensive one. The Strait of Hormuz
is no longer.... a mere geographical chokepoint
but a decisive lever ------ of Iranian power and
statecraft, capable of permanently rewiring
the geopolitical architecture of a region
long defined by unchecked US
naval overreach.
Iran will not compromise or offer any concessions on the Strait.
It will continue to manage the waterway according to its
sovereign rights and the new realities on the ground,
because.. the United States, through its continued
violations and aggression, has left no other path.
A memorandum broken by Washington
To understand Iran's current posture, one must first acknowledge
the contractual foundation that the United States systematically
dismantled under the Israeli lobby pressure.
The MoU - signed by the presidents of Iran and the United States -
though informal in its later iterations, represented a fragile.... but
functional framework for de-escalation after a war the US-Israeli
axis imposed on Iran. It included tacit understandings on naval
conduct in the Persian Gulf, restrictions on certain categories
of military activity near Iranian territorial waters, and mutual
recognition of each other's red lines.
The United States violated this framework repeatedly -- and
with impunity from day one. Airstrikes on southern Iranian
provinces have only become recurrent in the past week.
Naval incursions into Iran's exclusive economic zone,
cyber attacks targeting Iranian infrastructure & the
fresh deployment of carrier strike groups within
striking distance of Iranian shores --------- all
constitute breaches of the understanding.
With the enemy's systematic abandonment of the understanding,
Iran's constraint has been understandably & entirely removed.
The diplomatic track is not merely stalled but it is dead,
buried by US adventurism.
Tehran now feels fully empowered --- to deploy its full spectrum of
military, asymmetric, and economic options. This explicit linkage
between diplomatic collapse and military escalation is not a
choice but a necessity, to show the enemy its place.
Washington lit the fuse and Iran is now deciding
where the explosion lands.
US strategic failure and Iranian resolve
The Iranian strategic narrative is unapologetically self-assured, and
for good reason. The initial US war objective was publicly framed
as the destruction of the Islamic Republic and the unconditional
surrender of its government, which completely collapsed under
its own weight.
Washington's current objective -- after facing a disgraceful defeat
on the battlefield, is described by analysts, as a desperate bid to
"return to the pre-war status quo" in the Strait of Hormuz, which
represents the strategic exhaustion and cognitive failure of the
US' war machine.
This recalibration ....represents a fundamental success of Iranian
resistance and deterrence in the face of full-scale and illegal US-
Israeli military aggression. The world's sole military superpower
has been forced to abandon maximalist ambitions – “regime
change,” nuclear rollback, and the dismantling of Iran's
regional influence network ––– and now scrambles, to
unlawfully exert its control over a narrow waterway
--- that is being legally administered by Iran.
This is clearly observable in the contracting scope of US
demands over the past decade. From "Iran must cease
all uranium enrichment".. to "Iran must not close the
Strait" – the trajectory is one of humiliating retreat
and decisive defeat.
This interpretation is grounded in material reality. The US
has oscillated between sanctions, covert action, limited
military strikes, and diplomatic engagement, for over
forty years - and none achieving desirable results.
The narrowing of focus - to the Strait of Hormuz, while dramatic in
imagery, represents a contraction of ambitions. This is a battle of
wills – a protracted, high-stakes standoff where attrition, resolve,
and the willingness to absorb pain, rather than sheer military
superiority, will determine the outcome.
Iran holds the asymmetric advantage - in this domain: geographic
proximity, low-cost naval assets including swarms of fast-attack
craft and mines, asymmetric tactics such as helicopter-borne
special operations, and a considerably higher tolerance - for
economic disruption and human cost. The US, by contrast,
operates at the end of a long logistical chain, with
domestic political constituencies --- that grow
restless with each month of open-ended
military commitment.
Crucially, Iran exercised demonstrable restraint.. during the earlier
"ceasefire" period and the interim understanding with Washington.
That constraint ---- is now gone. With the US abandoning its
commitments under the memorandum, Iran is fully
empowered ---- to deploy its entire arsenal of
military and asymmetric options.
The collapse of the political track is not a setback for diplomacy
---- but a catalyst for accelerated action on the battlefield.
For Tehran, diplomacy was never an alternative to
confrontation... but a parallel track that, once
betrayed, unleashes forces Washington
cannot control.
Strait of Hormuz: Sovereignty and law
The significance of the Strait of Hormuz goes beyond economics
or military logistics. It is a powerful national symbol for Iran, an
undeniable right of the Iranian nation, and a representation of
territorial integrity in the waterway - known historically and
legally as the Persian Gulf. Iran rightly maintains, that the
management of the Strait is a sovereign right, a position
it has reinforced, by introducing legislation to formally
regulate the waterway and designate security zones.
The Persian Gulf Arab states' cooperation with the US military
occupation represents a violation of Iran's territorial integrity.
These Arab states – whether they actively cooperate with
US forces or are merely incapable of expelling the
terrorist U.S. military – are direct accomplices
in war crimes against the Iranian nation.
Iran's position ---- is clear: it will not compromise on the Strait of
Hormuz. It will continue to manage the waterway according to
its sovereign rights and the new realities on the ground,
because the US, through its continued violations
and aggression, has left no other path.
Yemen, Bab al-Mandeb, and the unity of fronts
Perhaps the most strategically significant element of Iran's new
regional doctrine is the explicit connection drawn between the
Strait of Hormuz confrontation and the breaking of the illegal
blockade on Yemen. This reveals a sophisticated,
interconnected regional strategy, that treats
various military theatres ..as components
of a unified operational framework.
Iran's actions with regard to Yemen - are not merely a humanitarian
gesture but a strategic masterstroke designed to demonstrate the
authority and tangible benefits of the Axis of Resistance - and to
project a new, more confident Iranian power that the world has
seen very clearly in the aftermath of the 40-day imposed war.
By breaking the illegally and inhumane blockade on Sana'a - and
delivering military and economic support to the Yemeni people
and their popular government, Iran is making a powerful
political and military statement.
To its allies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Ansarullah in
Yemen, and various Iraqi resistance groups – Iran signals that it
will act decisively to support its partners - even under the most
difficult circumstances. To its adversaries, it signals that Iran's
regional power network is active, functional -- and capable of
projecting power across multiple fronts, simultaneously.
The use of Yemen's strategic assets – particularly the Bab
al-Mandeb Strait ---- is a critical element of this strategy.
Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow chokepoint at the southern
entrance to the Red Sea, controls access to the Suez
Canal ......and is one of the world's most vital
maritime arteries.
By coordinating with Yemeni government forces, Iran could
potentially develop the capability to apply pressure on a
second major maritime chokepoint.... compounding the
economic impact of instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
This ability to threaten global shipping in two separate theatres
– the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea – would represent a
significant escalation in Iran's strategic leverage.
Global energy markets - already jittery - would
face compounded supply chain disruptions.
Insurance premiums for shipping -----
would skyrocket.
Asian economies, heavily dependent on Persian Gulf oil, would
face existential pressure to mediate, or choose sides.
The geopolitical ripple effects.... would extend to
Europe, China, India, and Japan and beyond.
The concept of arranging operational headquarters and force
coordination before the principal battle begins, is a powerful
indication that Tehran views the current phase of the war
as a prelude to a larger confrontation. It reflects a
military logic that sees current developments in
the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea ..as shaping
operations for a future, larger confrontation
with the US and its regional allies.
By establishing these operational linkages now, Iran has created
a seamless, multi-front command structure that can respond to
US and Israeli aggression with coordinated, simultaneous
responses across multiple theatres.
Sanctions, oil, and maritime insurance
No analysis of Iran's strategic posture is complete without
addressing the economic dimension of the ongoing war
imposed on the Iranian people.
The US has waged a sustained campaign of economic warfare
against Iran – not through military means alone, but through
decades of crippling sanctions that target not only the
Iranian government but ordinary Iranian people, also.
These sanctions have restricted access to food,
medicine, and essential humanitarian goods,
constituting what many international legal
scholars rightly consider: the collective
punishment of a civilian population.
In response, by threatening to restrict or entirely close the Strait,
Iran ------- directly challenges the global energy order. This is not
economic aggression but economic self-defense. If the US can
strangle Iran's economy through draconian sanctions..... Iran
can also lawfully protect its economic lifeline by controlling
the waterway through which.... the oil must pass.
Iran has also developed sophisticated countermeasures,
including reflagging vessels under friendly states,
utilizing alternative shipping routes, and
developing overland export corridors -
to circumvent maritime chokepoints.
Designing the playing field:
Competitive strategy in action
Iran's most sophisticated strategic insight is the recognition
that whoever designs the playing field gains the greatest
advantage from how others play upon it.
Tehran is selecting arenas of competition where it holds natural
advantages – geography, asymmetric tactics, cultural and
religious ties, and a willingness to absorb costs.... that
would deter more conventional powers. By contrast,
the US ---- is forced to respond to Iranian initiatives,
often in ways that play directly to Iran's strengths.
To impose a naval blockade and undermine Iran's sovereign control
requires significant naval assets --- and exposes US warships to
asymmetric threats such as mine warfare, swarm attacks, and
anti-ship missiles. The defense of regional states hosting US
military bases strains US resources and exposes the limits
.......of US military power. Each US act of aggression
generates costs – financial, political, and military.
The credible threat of other innovative options, that have not yet
been revealed underscores the unpredictability of the war and
how Iran dictates the terms now. This may include cyber
attacks on critical infrastructure, unconventional
economic measures, the activation of regional
networks in previously quiet theatres, or the
use of hypersonic missiles to overwhelm
the enemy’s multilayered missile
defense systems.
A new regional order is here
The implications are profound. Iran is not merely defending
a coastline but it is practically rewriting the rules of
engagement ----- in a region long defined by US'
naval hegemony.
The strategy aims to build self-sustaining momentum. This is an
ambitious effort to rebuild a polarized West Asia, where Iran
and its allies form a credible counterweight to the US-
Israeli-Persian Gulf alliance. The potential.. for this
axis to expand, perhaps drawing in other states
sympathetic to Iran's resistance narrative,
such as Turkey, Qatar, or even certain
Central Asian republics, represents
a fundamental challenge to the
existing regional order.
Iran's leadership has demonstrated, over four decades, a
remarkable capacity for strategic patience and risk
calculation. It understands the costs of war
because it has lived them, through the
Imposed War of the 1980s, through
sanctions, and assassinations.
It is a popular governing system that has learned,
through bitter experience, that surrender is
more costly than resistance.
The next phase will be defined by Iran's unwavering
determination to tighten its grip on the Strait of
Hormuz, expand regional influence, and force
the US war machine and its allies, to either
concede - or escalate at prohibitive cost.
Iran's position remains clear and non-negotiable: it will not
compromise on its sovereign right to secure its maritime
borders and manage the waterway.. as circumstances
now require.
The old order – US naval supremacy, unchallenged Persian Gulf
Arab control, and the artificial separation of the Persian Gulf
from other regional developments – is being systematically
dismantled. In its place, Iran is constructing a new
regional reality, defined by its own interests, its
own alliances, and its own vision....
of legitimacy.
The world is closely watching and the outcome will reverberate far
beyond the shores of the Persian Gulf, touching energy markets,
global shipping, alliance structures, and the future credibility
of US guarantees, worldwide.
______________________________________
Trump backs down on 20% fee, touts
trade, investment deals with Gulf
July 14th, 5:24pm
(Al Mayadeen English)
Trump has reversed the 20% Hormuz cargo fee - hours before it
took effect, replacing it with unspecified Gulf investment deals.
US President Donald Trump backed down on his plan to impose a
20 percent fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz on
Tuesday, just under five hours before the toll was due to
take effect, replacing it instead ---- with trade and
investment commitments from Gulf states.
"Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East
leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States
Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that
the various Gulf States will be making into the United
States," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
He gave no dollar figure and named no participating countries,
describing the anticipated investments only as "MASSIVE"
and pledging they would bring "Factories, Plants, and
Equipment" and "millions of High Paying AMERICAN
Jobs" into the US.
Trump: US 'guardian' of Hormuz
The reversal effectively substitutes one reimbursement scheme
for another. Trump had first floated the fee on Monday alongside
reinstating a naval blockade, claiming that Washington, being
"THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT," is owed
compensation for the role.
He had already previewed the reimbursement logic on Monday,
telling reporters - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and
Kuwait should pay Washington for "protecting" shipping
and regional allies, including "Israel".
Trump maintained that the naval blockade targeting Iranian
shipping specifically remains in force, writing the US "will
therefore have a FULL Blockade, but only on Ships
coming to and from Iranian ports, or carrying
anything have to do with Iranian cargo,"
while insisting the strait itself stays
open to all other traffic.
Iran defies US pressure
The reversal comes as Iranian officials have repeatedly
rejected Washington's claim to control the waterway.
Iranian army spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akrami
Nia said Tuesday that Iranian forces "will not retreat one step"
over the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that passage can only
be secured by respecting the Iranian people's rights.
A military source cited by Nour News separately warned that
any blockade of Iranian ports would produce "unforeseeable
conditions" for the region and global economy, with
consequences "beyond the imagination of
its planners."
The IRGC has meanwhile continued strikes on vessels violating
Iranian navigation protocols, disabling two supertankers in the
strait, alongside retaliatory strikes on the US-operated Juffair
base in Bahrain, hitting weapons depots, a satellite
communications hub, and air defense systems...
as Washington carried out a third consecutive
night of attacks on Iranian territory.
Source: Social media + Al Mayadeen English
_______________________________________
‘Airport for airport, siege for siege’:
Yemen issues warning
July 14th, 4:52pm
(Al Mayadeen English)
Yemeni officials say a strike on Abha Airport was a response
to the targeting of Sanaa Airport, while UN efforts continue
to push for de-escalation.
The Yemeni Armed Forces issued a warning on Tuesday, to all
airlines against flying through Saudi airspace, saying carriers
must take the warning seriously ---- until the siege on Sanaa
International Airport is lifted.
The Yemeni Military Media issued a warning to
airlines, against flying through Saudi airspace.
The warning was issued through the forces’ Military Media
channel, which said Sanaa had activated the equation of
“airport for airport and siege for siege.”
Al Mayadeen dissects situation
In a related development, Al Mayadeen's correspondent in
Yemen reported that possible scenarios stemming from
the siege on Yemen could include a situation in which
“America will not achieve any outcome,” while
stressing that developments on the ground
were moving .....in favour of the Yemeni
Armed Forces.
“The upper hand ......was with the Yemeni Armed Forces
on all fronts that were opened against them ---- across
various Yemeni provinces,” our correspondent added.
He added that Yemen was calling for the blockade to be lifted
and for laws to be implemented, while noting that one
possible scenario ---- involved the activation of
internal elements within Yemen.
Yemen signals expanded response
if blockade on airports continues
Elsewhere in his remarks, our correspondent noted that Yemeni
leaders had confirmed that the targeting of Abha Airport was
a response to the Saudi bombing of Sanaa Airport.
“Sanaa confirms that if war breaks out, Yemen will expand the
scope of fire deep inside Saudi territory,” the correspondent
said, adding that Yemen had decided to apply this model
to all airports - if Saudi Arabia entered the war.
Our correspondent also said that breaking the blockade was
not limited to the siege of Sanaa Airport but included the
broader land, sea, and air blockade.
UN seeks renewed dialogue after Saudi aggression
Meanwhile, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen said meetings had
been held in Muscat, with senior Omani officials - and Ansar
Allah’s chief negotiator, Mohammed Abdul Salam.
“My discussions with senior Omani officials and Ansar
Allah’s chief negotiator ---- focused on the need for
immediate de-escalation,” Hans Grundberg said.
He added that the parties must engage in negotiations
under United Nations auspices to address both
short- and long-term priorities.
The developments ------ followed the Yemeni Armed Forces’
announcement that Saudi warplanes had targeted Sanaa
International Airport on Monday, prompting a retaliatory
operation against Abha International Airport using
ballistic missiles and drones. YAF spokesperson
Brigadier General Yahya Saree ----- said the
operation achieved its objectives --- and
warned airlines against flying through
Saudi airspace, until the blockade
on Sanaa Airport is lifted.
Yemen maps Saudi targets, reveals
coordinates: ‘Response is coming’
Yemen has vowed to retaliate against Saudi Arabia over its
aggression on Sanaa International Airport, earlier today,
asserting that the strikes targeting the vital lifeline for
Sanaa are an act of war - that ends any pretense of
a truce.
Yemeni Military Media identified major Saudi airports, ports, and
oil facilities as potential targets after Riyadh attacked Sanaa
International Airport, signaling that Yemen will not allow its
sovereignty or civilian infrastructure to be violated
without consequences.
Yemeni Military Media released footage, titled “The response
is coming,” displaying several strategic airports, ports, and
energy facilities across Saudi Arabia - after the attack
on Sanaa International Airport.
Facilities mapped
The footage marked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh,
King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, and King Fahd
International Airport in Dammam.
It also identified Jazan Port, Jeddah Islamic Port, King Fahd
Industrial Port, and the Ras Tanura refinery and oil-
export complex.
The locations featured in the footage stretch from the Saudi
capital and the Red Sea coast to the oil-producing Eastern
Province, demonstrating the reach.... of Yemen’s missile
and drone capabilities.
King Khalid International Airport serves Riyadh, while the
airports in Jeddah and Dammam ----- are among Saudi
Arabia’s most important civilian and commercial
aviation hubs.
Jazan and Jeddah ports - are vital to Saudi trade and maritime
activity, while King Fahd Industrial Port and Ras Tanura,
form a central part of the Kingdom’s petroleum and
export infrastructure.
The footage did not state that every listed site would necessarily
be targeted. However, it delivered an explicit warning: that
Riyadh cannot expect to attack Yemen -- while preserving
complete security for its own economy & infrastructure.
Source: Agencies + Al Mayadeen
_________________________________________
Iran denounces UK's threat designation of IRGC
as ‘unjustified, irresponsible, against intl. law’
July 14th, 11:14am
(PressTV)
The Iranian Foreign Ministry has strongly condemned the
British government's decision to designate the Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a “threat under
the United Kingdom's National Security Act,”
describing the move as an “unjustified
and irresponsible” measure, that
violates international law.
In a statement on Tuesday, the ministry said the decision
contravened “the fundamental principles and rules of
international law ---- including the principles of
the sovereign equality of states, and non-
interference in the internal affairs
of other countries.”
It stressed that the IRGC was an integral component of the official
Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic and, alongside the Iranian
Army, was responsible for safeguarding the country's territorial
integrity, national sovereignty, and national security.
It also defended the force's regional role, saying its contributions to
regional peace, security, and human dignity, particularly through
its fight against the Daesh Takfiri terror group, were evident ---
to all.
According to the statement --- Britain's decision to apply such a
designation to an official institution of a sovereign state, is “a
disgraceful and provocative act” that violates international
law and the United Nations Charter.
The ministry added that the measure was particularly ill-timed
given the current tensions in the West Asia region and
criticized Britain's long history of interference in
other countries' internal affairs.
The statement further said that the United Kingdom "has no moral
standing to level accusations against others," reminding how the
country had acted as “an accomplice and active participant”
during the most recent bout of unprovoked US-Israeli
military aggression against Iran.
Rejecting Britain's allegations against the IRGC, the ministry said it
was “particularly ironic” that such claims had been used to try to
justify the decision while the UK, itself, "hosts and supports
terrorist and violent networks and groups."
Iran also warned that it reserves its rights under the UN Charter and
international law --- to take reciprocal measures, adding that the
British authorities would bear responsibility for the political,
legal, and diplomatic consequences of the decision.
The statement came after British Home Secretary Shabana
Mahmood announced that the IRGC would be designated
a... “national security threat under new powers in the
National Security (State Threats) Act” ....making
support for the elite force a “criminal offence
punishable by up to 14 years in prison.”
___________________________________________
Iran Army to US: Strait of Hormuz
will never be reopened through
war and aggression
July 14th, 9:41am
(PressTV)
Iran’s Army spokesman warns the United States, that no measure
of US aggression will force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,
following Tehran's decision to close the strategic waterway ----
over US violations.
"The aggressive and corrupt president of the United States must
learn to respect international law, the rights of nations, and the
dignity of peoples. As we have previously stated - the Strait of
Hormuz will never be reopened through war, hostility, or acts
of aggression by the United States,” Brigadier General
Mohammad Akrami-Nia said on Monday, addressing
a public gathering.
The two sides signed a memorandum of understanding last month
to end the cycle of hostilities -------- arising from the latest bout of
unprovoked US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic,
which began on February 28.
Under the interim deal, Iran agreed to allow toll-free maritime
transit through the strait .....for a period of 60 days.
Ebrahim Azizi, Chairman of the National
Security Committee of Iran's Parliament:
''We remain steadfast in defending our red lines,
particularly regarding the management of
the Strait of Hormuz.''
In compliance with the MoU, the Islamic Republic devised a
special maritime route for vessels to cross the chokepoint,
warning vessels against using illegal routes.
The US has, however, been trying to escort transit through the strait
along an illegal passageway, prompting the Islamic Republic to
shut the corridor until Washington ended its interference in
regional maritime movement.
Akrami-Nia likewise noted that, although the Americans had
accepted Iran's arrangements ....concerning the Strait of
Hormuz as part of the memorandum, they later sought
to establish a new route...... “through deception.”
He noted, though ---- “Iran’s armed forces stood firmly against the
Americans' breach of their commitments and declared that any
action in the Strait of Hormuz outside the arrangements
stipulated in the memorandum of understanding
would be met with a decisive response
from the Islamic Republic."
“The only way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is for the United States
to respect the rights of the Iranian nation ---- and comply with the
provisions of the war-ending memorandum of understanding,”
he reiterated.
“The Iranian people..... should also rest assured, that the
armed forces --- especially the Army --- will stand firm
to their last breath ----- and will not yield one iota of
the Iranian nation's rights in the Strait of Hormuz."
Meanwhile, the spokesman praised the large-scale public presence
in the streets throughout the period of foreign aggression against
the country, saying it proved the support for the Armed Forces'
defensive and retaliatory measures against the aggressors.
"The enemy had sought to bring down the country’s Islamic
establishment. It had assumed, that Islamic Iran was no
different from other countries. However, the presence
of the brave, vigilant, and devoted people, not only
displayed the unity of the Iranian nation, but also
demonstrated the popular and divine legitimacy
and acceptance of the Islamic Republic" in the
public sphere, he stated.
"For more than four months, you, the brave people of Iran,
have courageously remained present in the public
squares, supported the Armed Forces ---- and
thwarted every one of the enemy's plots,"
he added.
Akrami-Nia cited the millions-strong turnout, at the farewell
and funeral ceremonies ....for the martyred Leader of the
Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei....
as a case in point, calling it "an unparalleled event
--------- etched into the pages of history."