Gulf revises US ties, Iran regional
power grows: Marandi, Maloof
September 14th, 1:28pm
(Al Mayadeen English)
Dr. Mohammad Marandi and Micharl Maloof assess Iran’s regional
leverage, Gulf ties, the Strait of Hormuz, and mounting pressure
on Trump over the US war on Iran.
On The Great Standoff: Iran and the World, Professor Mohammad
Marandi and former US Defense Department official Michael
Maloof examined the shifting regional balance following
the US war on Iran, focusing on Iran’s relations with
Gulf states, the future of the Strait of Hormuz,
Washington’s regional posture, and
mounting political pressure on
the Trump administration.
Marandi: Gulf states must rebuild trust with Iran
Professor Mohammad Marandi said Gulf governments that
supported Washington and the Israeli regime, during the
war must take concrete steps to rebuild Tehran’s trust,
arguing that Iran has little reason to make the first
move after extensive regional assistance to the
US aggression.
“The Iranians owe them nothing. And they owe Iran a great deal,”
Marandi said, stressing that the grievances inside Iran toward
several Gulf governments... remain profound.
He pointed to the destruction caused by the war, including attacks
on schools, hospitals, residential buildings and civilian gatherings,
saying that those regional governments that facilitated these US
military operations ------- contributed to the deaths of thousands
of Iranians.
Marandi argued that the current situation is part of a much longer
history of regional states aligning themselves against Iran. He
recalled the 1980 war, when Western governments backed
Saddam Hussein and Gulf states, particularly Saudi
Arabia and Kuwait, provided Baghdad with vast
financial support.
He also pointed to the 12-day war --- last year, saying US refueling
aircraft operated from bases in Gulf countries and subsequently
refueled Israeli regime aircraft involved in attacks on Iran.
According to Marandi, the same states have now become involved in
the US war against Iran on an even broader scale. “Pretending to be
neutral is insulting to the Iranian people, to their own populations,
to the people of the region and --- the international community,”
he said.
Gulf monarchies face mounting risks
Marandi maintained that the continuation or expansion of the war
could pose an existential challenge to some Arab monarchies,
particularly if ---- their infrastructure and energy exports
remain exposed.
“If this continues, the stability of the Arab family regimes will be in
question,” he said, pointing to the damage to Saudi infrastructure
and the disruption to its oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
The most sustainable path for the Gulf states, he further stated,
is to improve relations with Iran and end their participation in
military actions against it.
“Iran is patient,” Marandi said. “If they don’t want to have a meeting
now, we can wait. We can wait a week. We can wait a month. We
can wait a year. We don’t even have to have the meeting.”
The professor also rejected the notion that Tehran should be
the party responsible for repairing relations, saying Gulf
governments must take the initiative and demonstrate
that they have changed course.
He cited the post-Saddam period as an example of how regional
relations can evolve. Gulf states that had supported Baghdad
during the Iran-Iraq War later sought a rapprochement with
Tehran, which Iran accepted.
“There is the possibility for positive change, but it’s
for them to make the right moves,” Marandi said.
Hormuz remains an Iranian-Omani matter
The Strait of Hormuz emerged as another central point
in Marandi’s assessment of Iran’s regional leverage.
He argued that arrangements concerning the waterway are primarily
a matter between Iran and Oman and rejected the idea that other
Gulf governments should have a decisive role in determining its
management, fees or control. “Any agreement ....is only the
business of Iran and Oman,” he said.
Marandi maintained that Iran is not under pressure to reach an
immediate arrangement with its neighbours, arguing that Gulf
governments face much greater economic and security risks
from the continuation of the war.
He also linked their vulnerability to Saudi Arabia’s aggression
against Yemen, saying Riyadh --- is paying an increasingly
heavy price through damage to its oil assets.
The professor said Iran’s objective is ultimately regional
stability and that Tehran wants the Strait of Hormuz
to serve as a centre of trade and business.
“We did not start this war. We did not
target civilians,” he said.
UAE shows greater pragmatism
Marandi singled out the UAE as a country that has become more
pragmatic toward Tehran, arguing that its economic interests
and exposure to the consequences of the war ------- have
encouraged a more realistic approach.
Iran and the UAE, he said, have already developed forms of limited
cooperation related to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz,
including arrangements involving smaller vessels transferring oil
from tankers inside the Persian Gulf to larger tankers outside it.
“There is a sort of agreement. The two sides
do have cooperation there,” Marandi said.
At the same time, he stressed - that any broader rapprochement
would require the UAE to distance itself from the Israeli regime
and prevent US forces from using its territory -- as a platform
against Iran.
Marandi and Maloof also discussed the possibility that US pressure
contributed to the postponement of a regional meeting involving
Gulf states. Marandi acknowledged, that this was speculation,
noting an absence of substantial reporting in Western media.
He suggested - that a potential regional meeting could have been
used to influence oil markets, particularly if markets interpreted
it as a sign that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen.
“Again, it’s just speculation on my part. I have
no insider information,” Marandi said.
He separately argued that Western and regional media outlets
had exposed the extent of their alignment with Washington
during the war.
Marandi also raised the possibility ---- of divisions within Western
political circles over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
He suggested that leaks and political pressure could form part
of an effort to weaken Netanyahu and replace him while
subsequently attempting to rehabilitate the image
of the Israeli regime.
He slammed the Israeli regime as “a genocidal regime”
and warned against any effort to restore its
international standing ...without
addressing its actions.
Maloof: Washington struggles:
to find an off-ramp from war
Meanwhile, former US Defense Department official Michael Maloof
focused on Washington’s increasingly difficult position, arguing
that the Trump administration has yet to find a political route
out of the war that would allow the president .......to avoid
appearing to have suffered a defeat.
Maloof said Trump has already acknowledged that the war could
continue until the end of his administration and has pointed to
the possibility of a solution, after the US midterm elections.
“I think that Trump just hates to lose,” Maloof said.
In his assessment, Trump is therefore searching
for an outcome that allows him to preserve
his political standing.
“I think he’s looking for an off-ramp in
which he will save face,” he said.
Maloof argued that any future negotiations with Iran are likely to
unfold under conditions more favourable to Tehran, particularly
given the limits of US military power ------ demonstrated during
the war.
He also stressed the significance of any participation by Saudi
Arabia, the UAE or other Gulf states - in regional discussions,
saying their attendance would indicate that they recognize
Iran as a major regional power ....and are looking for
alternatives to reliance on Washington.
Gulf states - face ''pressure'' from Washington
Maloof said Gulf governments.. may have been caught off guard by
the US decision to launch its attack on Iran, particularly because
some had previously indicated that their territories would not
be used to launch attacks.
He argued that Gulf governments seeking to improve relations with
Tehran ----- would need to demonstrate greater independence from
Washington and consider new arrangements for regional security.
“It would be wise for these Gulf Arab countries.. to be a little humble
if they decide to meet,” Maloof said, arguing that they could pursue
collective security arrangements while also seeking a reduction of
--- the US military presence in the region.
The postponement of the regional meeting, announced in brief
terms by Oman’s foreign minister, reinforced Maloof’s
suspicion that Washington is applying pressure
behind closed doors.
“That suggests to me that there’s a lot of backroom pressure
being put on the GCC countries now by the United States,”
he said.
Maloof suggested that Washington may have warned Gulf
governments that failure to cooperate could jeopardize
US security guarantees. “This is just my hypothesis,
my conjecture,” Maloof said.
He further argued that the meeting may have been arranged
rapidly and that its emergence could have caught the
Trump administration off guard.
The absence of significant Western media
coverage, in his view, was itself notable.
“I think that there’s a lot of backroom discussions going on
now between the Trump administration and the GCC
countries --- to find out precisely what approach
they intend to take,” Maloof said.
US domestic pressure grows... as war continues
Maloof then turned to the political consequences of the war
inside the US, arguing that opposition to the aggression is
deepening among the US public while tensions between
the Trump regime and the press - continue to escalate.
He said Trump has historically had a poor relationship with much
of the US media, but that the war has intensified those tensions
as public opposition grows. “Our people --- are overwhelmingly
opposed to the war,” Maloof said.
According to Maloof, the administration is also increasingly
concerned about national security leaks, particularly from
the Pentagon. He pointed to reported efforts to subject
dozens of Joint Staff personnel.... to polygraph
examinations, describing the development
as unprecedented.
Maloof said the administration’s response goes beyond
attempts to identify sources of leaks and reflects a
broader effort to tighten control over information.
He argued that Trump’s increasingly confrontational
treatment of journalists ....is connected to the
pressure surrounding the war.
“This is just the Trumpian way of conducting himself,”
Maloof said, adding that the president’s behaviour
could also reflect growing political insecurity....
as opposition to the war mounts.
Maloof further argued: that Trump has failed to convince
much of the US public that Iran was close to producing
a nuclear weapon.
He pointed to assessments from the US intelligence
community, before the attack, saying there had
been no evidence that Iran was on the verge
of... manufacturing a nuclear weapon. He
linked that dispute, to the departure of
ex- Director of National Intelligence,
Tulsi Gabbard.
Midterms could determine Trump’s political future
The war’s domestic consequences, Maloof said -- could
become even more severe after the midterm elections.
“If - he loses the House after November, they’re already
talking about how many investigations they’re going
to have of the Trump administration,” he said.
Maloof argued that a change in control of the House
could leave Trump politically weakened - for the
remainder of his presidency.
“That, basically, will bring his administration to an end
two years before it should be,” he said. “I mean... he
will be a lame duck for sure. Nothing will get done.”
He maintained that the administration therefore faces
pressure - on multiple fronts: military uncertainty
abroad, growing opposition at home, tensions
with the press and Congress, and mounting
questions over intelligence and national
security leaks.
Maloof raises questions ..over intelligence agencies
Maloof also raised the possibility that US intelligence
agencies may have pursued interests that were not
necessarily identical to those of the White House.
“The CIA.... has its own agenda. And you got to keep that
in mind,” he said, adding that intelligence officials may
have had their own reasons for decisions surrounding
the war & developments involving the Israeli regime.
At the same time, Maloof acknowledged that the origins
of specific intelligence leaks or decisions cannot be
established publicly with certainty. “So, we will
never know for sure whether that emanated
from the CIA ....or it could have been
...something else,” he said.
Maloof nevertheless pointed to statements from Israeli officials
indicating that they had been aware of preparations for an
attack --- and had warned the Netanyahu government.
His broader argument was that the war is exposing tensions
not only between Washington and its regional partners, but
also... in the US political and security establishment itself.
As the war continues, Maloof expects those tensions to intensify,
particularly as political pressure builds ---- ahead of the midterm
elections & the Trump administration confronts the difficulty of
finding an exit that does not appear to concede ground to Iran.
Source: Al Mayadeen English
_______________________________
Yemeni Armed Forces target
aircraft hangars, radars,
arms depots ......at
Saudi airbase
September 14th, 11:17am
(PressTV)
The Yemeni Armed Forces - have carried out a combined missile and
drone strike on a major airbase in Saudi Arabia’s southern region of
Asir in retaliation for the latest bout of Saudi military aggression
and ongoing blockade against their homeland.
The spokesperson for the Yemeni army, Brigadier General Yahya
Saree, announced in a televised statement on Monday that the
country’s military units had carried out a large-scale and
qualitative operation against King Khalid Air Base
near the Saudi city of Khamis Mushait, located
some 884 kilometres south of Riyadh.
He noted ---- that dozens of domestically manufactured Yemeni
ballistic missiles and combat drones hit military installations
and infrastructure, aircraft hangars, radar systems,
runways, arms depots, and other designated
targets inside the airbase.
Yemen taught US Navy ‘hard lesson,’ vows
‘siege for siege’ will continue: Ansarullah
Yemen’s Ansarullah resistance movement says its Armed Forces
have dealt the United States a serious setback and forced
Washington to reconsider its naval strategy.
“The Yemeni Armed Forces will continue their qualitative military
operations deep inside Saudi Arabia as long as the open
aggression against our people continues. Any new
aggression will be met with a decisive and
more intense response,” Saree noted.
The senior Yemeni official added, “We will continue to uphold the
siege-for-siege and escalation-for-escalation equation, and will
target Saudi troop buildups until the aggression ceases and
the siege on our beloved country is completely lifted.”
On July 20, the Sana’a government announced a maritime
blockade against Saudi Arabia in response to “an unjust
and oppressive siege” on Yemen - for almost 12 years.
Subsequently, the Yemeni armed forces have reported a series
of successful missions that have targeted vessels associated
with Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea.
__________________________________________________
‘Serious violation’: Iran slams Austria’s barring
of nuclear chief from IAEA conference under
US 'pressure'
September 14th, 11:04am
(PressTV)
A senior Iranian diplomat has protested over the prevention of
Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization
of Iran (AEOI), from attending the International Atomic
Energy Agency’s General Conference ----- under US
'pressure', calling it a “serious violation” of the
Islamic Republic’s rights as an IAEA member.
Reza Najafi, Iran’s ambassador and permanent representative
to international organizations in Vienna, made the remarks,
addressing the conference on Monday.
The diplomat rejected any characterization of the move as a minor
administrative matter or human error, saying, “This is a serious
violation of our country’s rights as a member of this agency.”
Najafi said preventing the head of the Iranian delegation from
attending the conference violated the principle of sovereign
equality enshrined in Article IV, Paragraph C of the IAEA
Statute. He said the principle guarantees equal rights
for all members and their enjoyment of the benefits
of membership.
The envoy said the move also undermined Iran’s right to participate
in the General Conference through a representative of its own
choosing ---- and weakened the privileges required for
representatives to perform their duties under the
IAEA Statute .....and the Agreement on the
Privileges and Immunities of the IAEA.
Equal representation and participation are
treaty-based membership rights.. that
“cannot --- and must not --- be
undermined,” he said.
Najafi further described the action as a violation of Austria’s
obligations as host country under the IAEA Headquarters
Agreement between Austria and the Agency.
He said the agreement requires Austria --- to take all necessary
measures to facilitate the entry of representatives of member
states into Austrian territory and issue their visas as
promptly as possible. The obligation, he stressed -
is binding and unconditional for representatives
holding valid credentials.
Najafi warned that preventing the head of a delegation
- from attending the agency’s highest policy-making
body undermined the conference itself, stressing:
that anything short of corrective action --- would
set a dangerous precedent for all IAEA members.
The violation followed adoption of an anti-Iran resolution by the
IAEA’s Board of Governors.... which has faulted the Islamic
Republic’s refusal to provide access to the nuclear sites
attacked during the US-Israeli aggression.
Tehran has asserted that continued US aggression against the
country -- has made effective IAEA inspections of the nuclear
sites impossible, adding, however, that it has demonstrated
a continued commitment to a constructive manner and
good-faith engagement with the agency.